Discussion for Thursday, January 28, 2010

I really bombed my forecast for Friday. I stuck fairly close to the model consensus, but that model consensus overestimated the precipitation before 6 Z and underestimated the cloud cover. That resulted in my high being way off and my precipitation total to be overly large.

Discussion for Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Yesterday's performance recap: I finished at 124th for the day so sticking close to guidance turned out to be very beneficial. USL overdid the wind considerably yesterday and seems to be doing the same today. NAM is performing the best so far of the models, so I will weight it more heavily in my forecast for today.

Today's basis: The ridge over Oklahoma today will be shifting southeast as the winter storm of doom moves into the area. Atlanta should be dry again tomorrow because of that, so precip worries will not start until late Friday night. NAM and GFS MOS are both close in agreement on temperatures with only a 1 degree difference in the highs and a two degree difference in the lows. Winds are lower than yesterday or today, which is expected given the ridge. USL again has the highest winds. Due to the NAM's performance, I will weight its forecast a bit more.

Discussion for Tuesday, January 26, 2010

I based my forecast primarily off of the USL runs due to their consistency with MOS and accuracy from the previous day. I made slight adjustments to compensate for the errors on the first day.